A new investor update from Canal+ has laid bare what many of us have known for sometime — MultiChoice is rapidly losing subscribers in Africa with over 2.5 million customers gone in just the last 24 months. It’s a tough read for Africa’s once-unshakeable pay-TV behemoth. 

However, this isn’t a simple “fall of an empire” narrative. Let me explain. 

In the rubble of MultiChoice’s legacy, two bright lights remain: Live sports and local African content. Together, they represent the last great moat for MultiChoice in an Africa that’s increasingly mobile-first, digital-native, and pirated-to-the-core.

Let’s unpack what’s going wrong — and what still might go right.

The Downward Spiral of a Legacy Business Model

From Nairobi to Lagos, and Cape Town to Cairo, households and individuals are cutting the cord. Across multiple markets, the signs are clear for all to see:

• Digital disruption: Netflix, YouTube, and TikTok dominate mobile screens, as well as screen time, and especially for younger audiences.
• Price fatigue: In Kenya, the top-tier DStv package now costs KES 11,000 per month — unaffordable for most consumers.
• Piracy explosion: Illicit IPTV streaming services — some charging as little as KES 500 monthly — offer the full DStv lineup and live sports in HD.
• Economic hardships: Macroeconomic challenges, currency depreciation, and inflation have pushed Pay TV down the household priority list.

On the back of all of this, the old business model remains unchanged: bundled pricing, set-top boxes, long-term subscriber agreements, and a business modelthat seems stuck in the past. 

The Power of Live Sports: Still Unmatched

Make no mistake — sports, and especially the English Premier League (EPL), are the crown jewels of the MultiChoice empire.

• For many African households, DStv and ShowMax exist to watch football. Everything else is a bonus.
• SuperSport’s rights to the EPL, UEFA, La Liga, and other major leagues remain a massive competitive advantage.

This is the single biggest reason many households and individuals (reluctantly?) keep paying their DStv and ShowMax bills. If SuperSport ever lost these rights — or if the EPL ever launched direct-to-consumer streaming in Africa (as I’ve speculated before) — the subscriber exodus could become truly exponential. 

Local African Content: A Cultural Edge That Still Matters

However, in the midst of all of this, let’s give credit where it’s due.

From Maisha Magic East in Kenya, to Africa Magic in Nigeria, to Mzansi Magic in South Africa — MultiChoice is still the continent’s leading producer and distributor of African storytelling at scale.

• These aren’t just shows — they’re reflections of culture, language, and identity.
• Global streamers like Netflix have tried — but failed — to match this level of relevance and nuance.
• This content resonates deeply with African audiences, rural households, and non-English speakers — markets still largely ignored by global streamers.

This local-first African content remains MultiChoice’s secret sauce, and Canal+ would be wise to protect and amplify it.

The Future? Unbundled, Micro-Priced, & Mobile-First

To survive — and maybe even thrive — MultiChoice needs to reinvent from the ground up:

• Offer micro-bundles and pay-per-view: Imagine paying KES 50 to watch an Arsenal game live, or KES 150 for a weekend of EPL matches. Don’t sell bouquets — sell moments.
• Go mobile-first — seriously: Prioritize Android users. Make Showmax lighter. Zero-rate content on telcos like Safaricom. Use M-Pesa as default in Kenya. Treat mobile data like gold.
• Use Moment (its fintech): This is a huge strategic play — enabling real-time, low-friction payments across Africa could allow MultiChoice to rebuild its entire revenue model around micro transactions.
• Fight piracy with value, not lawsuits: Beat IPTV on experience, accessibility, and cost. Make the legal option better, easier, and cheaper.

What This Means for Kenya & the Rest of Africa 

In Kenya, the shift is happening fast:

• Many informal retailers offer illegal IPTV streaming as alternatives to official DStv access.
• Parents are cancelling DStv. Kids are on YouTube, Netflix and TikTok at scale. 
• Showmax is gaining traction with its affordable and mobile-biased offerings and especially where the Premier League is concerned but its clear that the way its packaged is designed to NOT cannibalize DStv’s offerings and marketshare. 

Yet, millions still want to watch Manchester City vs Arsenal, or binge-watch their favourite local drama. The demand is there — the model just needs to evolve.

MultiChoice is not dead. But it is at a crossroads.

Its strengths — live sports and African storytelling — are still powerful. But unless it unlearns decades of pay-TV business model habits and embraces a new consumer-first reality predicated on digital-first and mobile-driven sensibilities, it will become a cautionary tale.

The market has changed, and so must MultiChoice.